Polymarket inline evidence trust pattern — Hovvi
How Polymarket makes probabilities auditable by shipping outlet headlines, chart source labels, resolution rules and the fee formula on the market surface.
Published by Hovvi Research. Observed ; materially updated .
What happened
Every price travels with its evidence: linked outlet headlines beside odds, a labelled chart source, named resolution data and a published fee formula. Attach named-source news, a chart source label, plain-language resolution rules and a published fee formula to the market surface itself.
Evidence
Published fee structure
| Market class | Fee posture | Published rule |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical and world events | Fee-free | Flagship classes carry no trading fee |
| Other markets | Formula fee | Fee scales with contracts times probability times its complement |
| Liquidity providers | Rebates | Maker and Taker Rebate Programs are documented |
Odds that cite their outlets
A featured Senate primary card shows candidate probabilities directly above the headlines plausibly moving them, so the number and its news arrive together.
- Wall Street Journal
- Trump Makes Pitch for Sen. Darline Graham After Her Shaky Debate Performance
- Bloomberg
- Trump's New Midterm Pitch to Voters: Pretend I'm on the Ballot
Named resolution source
Charts label their data source and Rules name the FOMC documents that settle the market, so humans and agents can audit why a number moved before trusting it.
Observed facts
- The featured South Carolina Senate card pairs candidate probabilities of 64% and 36% with inline Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg headlines beside the odds.
- The probability chart on the Fed event carries a Source: Polymarket.com label directly under the curve.
- Fed outcome rows show per-outcome volume and Buy Yes and Buy No cent prices side by side.
- A Rules section names the FOMC decision documents that settle the market in plain language.
- The fees documentation states geopolitical and world-events markets are fee-free and defines the fee formula from the traded contract count and probability.
- Maker and Taker Rebate Programs are published beside the fee formula.
- Developer docs expose a TypeScript quickstart reading public market data without an account.
Editorial inference
- When an Agent can access these public surfaces or Hovvi's rights-qualified cited projection, it can inspect the evidence, resolver and fee posture before reusing the number; public access alone does not guarantee a correct conclusion.
Evidence views
- Evidence-inline card
- Sourced chart detail
- Resolution rules
- Fee table
- Public API reference
Founder takeaway
Trust compounds when the evidence, resolver and fee travel with the number.
Use when
- Outcomes depend on verifiable external events
- Users or agents must audit why a number moved
Avoid when
- Outcomes are subjective with no named resolver
- Evidence sources cannot be licensed for display
Next implementation step
Design an agent-readable trust surface where every price carries its evidence, resolver and fee posture.
Acceptance criteria
- Each displayed probability resolves to a rights-qualified observed surface
- A reader can reach the resolver and the fee rule from the number itself
- Evidence blocks stay valid against their cited facts
- Agents can retrieve the same evidence humans see
Related cases
- Live trade to evidence trail: Polymarket live activation flow — Hovvi
The activation flow shows where commitment happens while the trust decision explains the resolution rules, inline evidence and fee formula that make those prices auditable.
Version history
Current snapshot: snap_polymarket_inline_evidence_trust_2026_08_25 — Added the Polymarket trust dossier: inline outlet headlines, chart source labels, named resolution rules, a published fee formula and a public API.
Use with an Agent
Example read-only MCP query:
Retrieve the Hovvi Founder case fc_polymarket_inline_evidence_trust_2026_08 with observed facts, evidence screens, applicability limits and citations.